But, Mr Speaker, The Statistics Show ...

With thanks to Mark Twain, of "Huckleberry Finn" fame ...

... we have the phrase "There are lies, damned lies and statistics!"

The term was popularised in the United States by Twain (among others), who attributed it to the 19th-century British Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli (1804–1881): "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics." However, the phrase is not found in any of Disraeli's works and the earliest known appearances were years after his death. Many other possible originators of the phrase have been proposed.

fbb has previously mentioned the Transport for London survey to justify withdrawal of District Line trains to Kensington Olympia, see "Dashed Green, Deleted District?" (read again). Here, TfL surveyed thousands and, surprisingly, the 80+% of those surveyed, presumably who travelled on the crowded Wimbledon branch, wanted more trains and the 15+% who travelled to Kensington Olympia didn't want to lose theirs.

A clear-cut statistical case for making the change for the benefit of the vast majority!!

This lovely little pie chart ...

... was issued by the Association of Train Operating Companies at the time of the January fares hike (how can fares go on a hike?) ...

... to promote the misleading message that, "it ain't our fault, pal, blame Network Rail and/or the government!" Whilst everything that happens on the railways is inevitably coloured by state interference policy, ATOC members must accept at least part of the "blame" as they strive to maintain dividends for their shareholders.

Then there is this, emanating from TfL and quoted in the March edition of "Buses" magazine.

What does it mean?

fbb guesses that there is an average of well over 10 million bus and rail passenger journeys made in London each day. Of these only 0.1% (one in every thousand) contact TfL by phone or interweb for bus times. But what does that actually mean?

Either the majority are so well informed they don't need such detail, OR the buses are so frequent and reliable (?) that folk just go out and wait with a spring in their step and a face radiant with diurnal joy, OR the process of finding out is so convoluted that they don't even try. Whatever the reason, such a minimalist percentage is so small as to be negligible; which means TfL need not bother providing bus timetables at all, statistically! Which, of course, they don't.

But what do the remaining 7.4% of potential travellers ask, if not for bus times? Undergound times? Overgound times? Nationa Rail times? River Bus times? The mind boggles! A picture of the favourite bus? Complaints about late running? Fares enquiries? Colour of driver's socks?

And what does the 750,000 measure? On line, for example, mouse clicks, page views, site visits or enquiring e-mail addresses all give different statistics. The fact is, unsurprisingly, that this little news-bite is completely meaningless.

But it does suggest that the vast sums of money spent on electronic information provision is largely wasted. If it doesn't suggest that, then the reader needs a much more detailed (and independent) analysis of TfL's data to understand what the true implications are.

But fbb has a favourite statistic. It is this:-

The majority of people in Great Britain

have a higher than average

number of legs.

Absolutely true.

Very few people have MORE than TWO legs. A small number of people are disabled and have LESS than two legs. So the average number of legs is (slightly) less than two; and by far the majority have more than that average.

Thoughtful readers of the typical news-bite will, of course, realise that statistics are only quoted if they favour the point of view of the news-bite's instigator.

Like the oft quoted "Rail fares in GB are the most expensive in Europe", which we will look at tomorrow.

P.S. fbb sometimes struggles with percentages; apologies if the decimal points have been wrongly allocated. He's has five attempts (without calculator) since 0645! Such is the deep joy of decyphering statistics.

 Next Blog : due Friday February 24th 

Bus Rides Bought from Bawtry [3]

Extra Journeys Available - or not?

Bawtry's on-line presence is minimalist, with a web site that offers little except:-

Welcome to Bawtry Our Town
In the 12th century Bawtry was the third largest inland port in England. Today Bawtry provides high class shopping during the day and an eclectic social scene in the evenings.

The list of forthcoming activities (in 2009!) is as follows:-

These are Bawtry's major events, refer to the Town Council Newsletter for actual dates and times.
June
Bawtry Action for Recreation and Sports (BARS) Sports Day at the Memorial Sports Ground
December
 Late night Christmas shopping, 5pm to 8pm, Thursday 3 December 2009
Carol Service on Market Hill .

The town is on the south eastern tip of South Yorkshire with the border with Nottinghamshire literally at the end of the High Street (called South Parade at that point). It had a station on the East Coast main line ...

... which closed in June 1965. It was a busy staging post on two main trade routes, the Great North Road and what became the A631 from Yorkshire to Lincolnshire. Its bus services are in the hands of Stagecoach, successors to East Midland and run, mainly north and south to Doncaster, Worksop and Retford.

In the late 70s and early 80s there was a newly created link east to Sheffield which did not survive the turbulent post privatisation years.

But we have been looking at cross-border links to the North Nottinghamshire villages of Scaftworth, Everton, Mattersey and Mattersey Thorpe. WHY? Because, at first glance, there isn't much on offer.

But the Stagecoach printed timetable guides us, via the "star" note, to service 27A.

The leaflet is, however, less than helpful in matters of detail. Travel South Yorkshire obediently copies the Stagecoach words without really understanding what they mean.

TSY also copies the Stagecoach mistake as the fourth time should read 1255!

But you will not find four bus trips to Mattersey Thorpe, only two.

The 1055 and 1255 are arrival times back at Bawtry. Nottinghamshire and Stagecoach both provide an on-line timetable, but the latter incorporates the Mattersey journeys into a complicated composite with 27A journeys in the opposite direction to Misson and a schoolday bus, service 129.

It's accurate but very messy. The star refers back to connections for Retford.

Unhelpfully, Nottinghamshire makes no mention of the fact that journeys have to be pre-booked, so tough luck if you arrive at Bawtry from Doncaster at 1000 on the service 99 to change to the 1015 service 27A ...

... and you haven't pre-booked, you could have and long long wait until 1642 if no-one else requires the elusive 27A.

Traveline Yorkshire makes no mention of the service at all, leaving off peak potential travellers to Mattersey Thorpe with a tortuous route via Retford. What fun!

One hour and 36 minutes as opposed to a mere 17 minutes on the 27A. fbb is not 100% certain where the captivating Cooks Cottages can be encountered but he is 100% certain that he would prefer to interchange at the impressive new Retford bus station.

Traveline East Midlands does include the errant journeys ...

... without a clear mention that they have to be pre-booked. The technology also tells the unwary that the Stagecoach bus will be going to Bawtry, which is where you would be waiting to board it. Once again this is because the data has been entered erroneously in the form of a "circular" service, which it isn't. Will the destination screen on the bus be more helpful? "Service" 27A?

service 27A at Mattersey Thorpe

So the traveller has a choice:-

Incomplete and effectively incorrect paper information from TSY

Incomplete and effectively incorrect paper infromation from Stagecoach

Incomplete and confusing on-line information from Stagecoach

Incomplete on-line information from Nottinghamshire

Incomplete information from Traveline Yorkshire

Incomplete information from Traveline East Midlands

Sometimes (no, often), fbb wonders whether "the powers that be" (in this case Nottinghamshire which sponsors service 27A) actually want people to use their services. If they do, then surely this ...

... is a more helpful presentation of the options available from Bawtry to Mattersey.

Oh dear, what can the matter be?

When are the buses from Bawtry to Mattersey?

Complications bludgeon and batter me

It's hard to find out what's there.

 Next Blog : due Thursday February 23rd 

Bus Rides Bought from Bawtry [2]

The search for service 27A. (but interrupted?)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

Always at the forefront of modern technology, fbb has submitted

his Company's Annual Return to Companies House on-line.

It's worth doing at £14 rather than £40 BUT what a hassle.

It has involved

1 reminder letter received

5 emails received

1 letter received  'cos fbb forgot a code

the usual battle with debit card "security":-

thus typing in about 130 different codes and characters

in assorted boxes and using about 20 mins of fbb's time

-o-o-o-o- 

It makes battling with bus information quite pleasurable. BUT, is it really more efficient and less costly than sending out a copy of the form by post for the Company Secretary to sign and post back? Technology for the sake of it, again.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

Back to the business in hand. But, before we unravel service 27A, let's compare the output of the three providers of timetables for service 27 (from Bawtry to Mattersey and on to Retford). See "Bus Rides Bought from Bawtry [1]" (read again).

The Stagecoach timetable is, like most of their leaflet infromation, very basic; in this case needing three explanatory notes to give the complete picture.

Nottinghamshire's version, only available on-line, is a little better, partly because it offers separate Monday to Friday and Saturday panels; yet a littler worse because the timetable is not correct, probably simply out-of-date.

But the prize for the most helpful set of times must go to Travel South Yorkshire. Yes, dear blog reader, you are not dreaming; you have not dropped into a parallel universe; neither has fbb finally gone completely doolally. So let's hear it again.

The prize for the most helpful set of times must go to Travel South Yorkshire. Unlike Stagecoach it clearly shows times for Everton Village centre; that's High Street ...

... according to TSY (and that is a bus stop "flag" on the telegraph pole!), or Chapel Lane Primary School according to Nottinghamshire. No pole and no flag this time.

And, no, they are not different names for the same place, they are different stops, as shown by the little blue symbols to the left and right of this aerial view.

Why? No idea! TSY also explains the schoolday diversion correctly, whereas Nottinghamshire doesn't. NCC's school times are different and almost certainly wrong, anyway. Stagecoach only reveals the truth in its black blob note. Poor marks, Stagecoach, because If you don't read the note ...

...  you might well arrive in Retford 15 minutes late and miss an onward connection. Neither presentation method is much help, however, if you don't know whether it's a schoolday or not.

And that "star" note is our first clue as to the Service 27A from Bawtry to Mattersey.  But, hold fast ye bus-lubbers. fbb chose his words carefully when he said (twice) that the TSY timetable was he most helpful set of times.

But look at the list of places ...

Oh dear,oh dear; and again, oh dear.

Everton, King William ...

... is actually SCAFTWORTH, King William.

Mattersey, Breck Lane ...

... is actually Mattersey THORPE, Breck Lane.

Lound, Town St/Station Road ...

... is actually SUTTON-CUM-LOUND, Town St/Station Road.

Hey, that's three locations totally wrong on one timetable; a bit of a TSY record, is it not? Well done!

Never mind, all three are in Nottinghamshire and that is foreign territory "where be dragons".

extract from the famous hand drawn William deScarlette

map of Nottinghamshire, first published in 1197.

Courtesy of The P. Ottie Museum, Retford

But tomorrow (promises, promises) we MUST track down the 27A.

 Next Blog : due Wednesday February 22nd 

Bus Rides Bought from Bawtry [1]

An Old Nottinghamshire Folk Song goes something like this ...

Oh dear, what can the matter be?

When are the buses from Bawtry to Mattersey?

What are the times from Monday to Saturday?

And what will I pay for the fare?

... although some may know other words. 

This is Bawtry, located on the south eastern tip of South Yorkshire but with the boundary of Nottinghamshire literally a few hundred yards south of the town centre.

It is from this stop that an exploring fbb would catch a bus to Mattersey. But why?

Border towns give fbb the opportunity to compare information provision from bus operator, South Yorkshire PTE and Nottinghamshire County Council; because, oddly in this electronic bits and bytes world, they all present timetables differently.

So let's, first, take an introductory tour of Stagecoach service 27 between Bawtry and Mattersey Thorpe.

The service appears to be a particularly parlous provision which we will examine in more detail tomorrow. Three peak time trips and nowt else. For now, we sally forth to Scaftworth which, astoundingly still has a bus service, despite being, well, small. It does have the King William pub ...

... a manor and a few cottages. The turn from the Bawtry direction is anonymous, just behind the lorry.

Whereas approaching from the east there is one tiny sign.

It must have been fun, way back, before the hamlet was bypassed, as here in the 1930s map extract.

The bypass is long standing (post WW2?) and has been turned into a whizzo dual carriageway bit of the A631.

fbb would have expected nothing but a layby on the dual carriageway; but buses venture into the village.

We move on to Everton, where most journeys stop on the A631 at the Sun Inn ...

... although daytime journeys running between here and Retford nip up to the village centre, just off to the left, mainly for the convenience of an easy turn. Onward we go to Mattersey itself, where we miss the pretty bit ...

... as we turn right ...

... for the "double run" to Mattersey Thorpe. An initial glance suggests that the peak time journeys on the service 27 timetable are about the lot. But, as Jimmy Cricket would say ...

... there's more.

Take a look at those as yet unexplained notes.

Black Blob : covers schoolday variations

Letter E : is for buses that dive into Everton Village

The Star : refers us to Service 27A "Phon-a-Bus"

And the 27A provides two extra journeys from Bawtry via Everton available by pre-booking via the "phon". So maybe things are a little better than they might first appear at the delightful Mattersey Thorpe.

The village consists of a few "done up" cottages enhanced (?) by a substantial excrescence of dormitory property.

Tomorrow we will see. And, astoundingly, there will be a few words of congratulation for Travel South Yorkshire. But fear not, regular aficionados of TSY and the fat bus bloke, there'll be a laugh or two as well.

We go in search of the elusive service 27A

 Next Blog : due Tuesday February 21st